That’s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed far lower levels of yield curve inversion. The model has a robust track record in calling ...

Now, to the charts, starting ... Once this number turns negative, the yield curve has inverted, which almost always signals a recession (although perhaps not for up to two years).

An expert has projected that the U.S. economy might be headed for a recession in the new year, with timing mostly hinging on ...

Nominal market TA and risk indicators like VIX and HY Spreads kept us bullish in 2024, but 2025 shows clear and increasing ...

When the treasury bond yield curve inverts (and remains inverted for some time), the likelihood of the economy slipping into recession is high. A yield curve is a graph on which bonds are ...

The event – commonly dubbed a yield curve inversion – was largely viewed as a signal the U.S. economy would likely slip into recession in the near future. An inverted yield curve occurs when ...

Since the 1970s, every U.S. recession has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. The end of the inversion came in response ...

The probability of the economy to hit a recession increases when the yield curve remains inverted for a longer period of time ...

An inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been seen as a recession warning sign for decades, and it looks like it’s about to light up again. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains why an inverted ...

While the yield curve is inverted, that doesn't mean the closely watched recession indicator is predicting a downturn ahead, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. For years, he has been saying ...

A famously accurate recession indicator has been flashing for 18 months without an economic slowdown materializing — but the inverted yield curve is still correct, and a downturn is looming ...