An inversion of the yield curve—a chart plotting returns on debt of various maturities—historically has been a sign that a recession is on the way.

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates ...

This may explain why a recession has not materialized thus far, even though the yield curve has been inverted ... below their long-term averages (see chart below). One explanation is credit ...

An inverted yield curve has historically been the most reliable recession indicator, though hardly an infallible one. Overreacting to any recession signal could be costly: economic expansions ...

We can see the economy racing toward this gaping hole in the yield curves. The first chart below goes all the way back to the 1981-1982 recession, showing many selected yield curves. Notice the steady ...

Stock market concentration and overvaluation … bond market craziness … the yield curve normalizes … are consumers healthy? … ...

A yield curve inversion, where short-term interest rates exceed long-term ones, has historically been a red flag for ...