That’s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed far lower levels of yield curve inversion. The model has a robust track record in calling ...

When the treasury bond yield curve inverts (and remains inverted for some time), the likelihood of the economy slipping into recession is high. A yield curve is a graph on which bonds are ...

An expert has projected that the U.S. economy might be headed for a recession in the new year, with timing mostly hinging on ...

The event – commonly dubbed a yield curve inversion – was largely viewed as a signal the U.S. economy would likely slip into recession in the near future. An inverted yield curve occurs when ...

Since the 1970s, every U.S. recession has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. The end of the inversion came in response ...

One year ago, most forecasts were less optimistic about the opportunity for continued economic expansion through 2024.

An inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been seen as a recession warning sign for decades, and it looks like it’s about to light up again. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains why an inverted ...

An inversion of the yield curve—a chart plotting returns on debt of various maturities—historically has been a sign that a recession is on the way.

While the yield curve is inverted, that doesn't mean the closely watched recession indicator is predicting a downturn ahead, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. For years, he has been saying ...

A famously accurate recession indicator has been flashing for 18 months without an economic slowdown materializing — but the inverted yield curve is still correct, and a downturn is looming ...

The US Feds interest rate cut and yield curve inversion signal potential recession and market corrections, with historical ...