When the treasury bond yield curve inverts (and remains inverted for some time), the likelihood of the economy slipping into recession is high. A yield curve is a graph on which bonds are ...

The economist Robert Solow, who died in December, once said that everything reminded Milton Friedman, his fellow Nobel ...

An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term yields on ... For starters, in January, the U.S. Commerce Department estimated the real GDP, or gross domestic product, grew by 2.5% in 2023 ...

Since the 1970s, every U.S. recession has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. The end of the inversion came in response ...

While short-term yields stayed roughly put during the week, everything from the 1-yr yield and longer rose. The 10-yr yield ...

A famously accurate recession indicator has been flashing for 18 months without an economic slowdown materializing — but the inverted yield curve is still correct, and a downturn is looming ...

The inverted Treasury yield curve is hitting extreme new levels. But paradoxically, it may be suggesting that investors are both more worried about a recession and less worried. WSJ’s Dion ...

WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains why an inverted yield curve can be so reliable in predicting recession and why market watchers are talking about it now. Illustration: Ryan Trefes Dion Rabouin breaks ...

If the curve remains inverted for long enough, it could cause a credit crunch and recession. Stocks move most on the gap between expectations and reality. Reading the yield curve correctly can ...

While the Fed cut its policy rates by a full percentage point, long-term yields have risen by a full percentage point.

High short-term interest rates could mean that the yield curve remains inverted for some time. If that happens, then the recession debate too, may go on for many more months.